Google’s smart home strategy has, for a long time now, felt a bit half-arsed; like a side project someone in Mountain View had reminders set to check in on every few months or so.
While Amazon has bulldozed Alexa’s way into a bazillion homes with Echo devices, and Apple carved out its niche with the super-slick HomeKit, Google Home has, for a few years now, been like third-wheel.
Reports around 2021/22 actually had Google leading the way on the voice assistant front but, despite that early promise, any dominance seems to have diminished; a report just published by Statista has the tech giant miles behind Bezos and the gang.
And it’s not a market that it can afford to lose pace with. The global voice assistant market size is predicted to hit around $55 billion by 2033, more than tenfold what it is now.
Google knows that though. With Gemini AI set to replace Google Assistant and a supposed wave of “more helpful” devices on the horizon, the Big G has one last chance to make a real play for the smart home crown.
Playing catch up
The problem has never been Google’s technology, it’s been the execution. The Nest brand, which Google gobbled up for more than $3 billion in 2014, was once synonymous with smart home innovation and slick device design.
But it, like the entire Google Home range of hardware, has been left to stagnate.
When was the last time we got a truly exciting Google Home product? The Nest Audio speaker in 2020? The second-gen Nest Hub from 2021?
Meanwhile, Amazon has been churning out new Alexa-powered devices like clockwork, including new ideas like the Echo Hub and form factors that push the boundaries a bit, like the new Echo Show 15 and 21… as well as continuing to launch an absolute avalanche of affordable smart speakers.
It’s true that Apple hasn’t really set the smart home world alight, hardware-wise, in the past few years, but the rumor mill suggests that’s about to change and, on the software side, HomeKit and the Home app have evolved at a rapid pace.
The new playbook
Google seems to have a plan though and, ahead of its execution, is cleaning house.
The Nest Protect and Nest x Yale Lock have been killed off, features are being dropped from older devices, and the message is clear: out with the old, in with the new.
But what is “new,” exactly? A Nest Thermostat refresh? A new Google TV streamer? That’s not going to cut it.
The answer could well be Gemini AI; a smarter, more conversational voice assistant, and one that is capable of handling much more complex tasks. A genuine Alexa+ rival for smart home execution then… if it works.
Swapping out Google Assistant for Gemini won’t mean much if the hardware running it remains outdated.
Smart displays and speakers are still the backbone of any smart home ecosystem, and without new, compelling hardware to showcase Gemini’s supposed intelligence, this transition risks being nothing more than a rebrand.
The bigger issue is trust and reputation; Google Home has alienated quite a lot of smart home enthusiasts in the past few years.
Google Assistant has always been a mixed bag for smart home control, and Gemini isn’t exactly launching with a spotless record.
If Google expects homeowners to hand over their daily routines to an unproven voice assistant, it needs to prove that Gemini isn’t just another AI experiment doomed to be quietly shut down when the next big thing comes along.
We need new toys
If Google is serious about this revamp, it needs to go big. That means a new flagship smart display that can compete with the top-end Echo Shows, and also Apple’s rumored HomePod with a screen.
And we need a full overhaul of the Google Home app to make smart home control feel as seamless as Apple Home, or as in-depth as something like Homey or SmartThings.
People also want stuff to work together in one place, seamlessly. The messy merger of the Nest and Google Home apps does, finally, appear to be sorted after years of absolute chaotic nonsense, but Google can’t afford to over-complicate things like this again.
The smart home landscape is shifting fast. Amazon is reportedly considering rebranding Echo devices under the Alexa name, such has been its dominance in the past couple of years, and AI-powered home assistants are about to get a lot smarter, but also more competitive.
If Google wants to avoid fading into irrelevance in the smart home market, Gemini AI and whatever hardware follows need to be more than just a slight refresh.
